What Thousands of Graded Cards Reveal About the Card Market

We Analyzed Thousands of Cards. Here Is What We Found.

The card grading industry processed an estimated 12.5 million cards in 2025, generating somewhere between $187 million and $312 million in revenue at $15 to $25 per card. That is a lot of money changing hands -- and a lot of collectors making individual decisions about whether their cards are worth grading.

But those decisions are largely based on gut feeling, forum advice, and a handful of widely cited statistics that turn out to be misleading.

For the State of Card Grading 2026 study, we analyzed thousands of cards through CardGrade's AI grading system. Unlike industry datasets that only capture cards people chose to submit, our data includes everything -- the cards that would have graded beautifully and the cards that never should have left the penny sleeve. The results paint a very different picture than the one most collectors have in their heads.

The Harsh Truth: Most Cards Are Not Worth Grading

This is the finding that will sting, but it is the one that can save you the most money. The majority of cards scanned through our system fall below the PSA 8 threshold -- the grade at which most modern cards start to carry a meaningful premium over raw value.

That means most cards, if submitted to a grading company, would come back in a slab that is worth less than the cost of grading. At $25 per card through PSA's Collectors Club tier, every card that grades below an 8 represents money lost. Not just "less profit than expected" -- actual negative ROI.

The math is straightforward. If you submit 100 cards at $25 each, that is $2,500 in grading fees alone before shipping, insurance, and supplies. If 60 of those cards come back at PSA 7 or lower, you just spent $1,500 on slabs that added no value. That is money you could have spent on better cards, or simply kept in your pocket.

Centering: The Number One Grade Killer

Across all cards in our dataset, centering emerged as the single most common reason cards miss top grades. Not corner dings. Not surface scratches. Centering.

This makes sense when you think about it. Corners, edges, and surface condition are partially within your control -- you can handle cards carefully, store them properly, and inspect them before purchase. But centering is baked in at the factory. A card that came off the press at 65/35 left-to-right is never getting a PSA 10, no matter how pristine the rest of it is.