The CardGrade Gem Rate Index

Across 16,653 cards CardGrade’s AI has analyzed, just 26.3% earned a predicted gem-mint 10 (average predicted grade 8.32). Below: how the gem rate splits by category and by set — including which sets are brutal to gem.

26.3%

of 16,653 analyzed cards are predicted to gem (10). Updated July 19, 2026.

Gem rate by category

Pokémon and TCG cards gem at meaningfully higher rates than modern sports cards.

Category	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Yugioh	140	46.4%	8.35
Magic	75	37.3%	8.33
Onepiece	268	33.2%	8.51
Pokemon	5,882	32.1%	8.49
Tcg	444	28.6%	8.60
Sports	7,192	24.8%	8.14

Hardest sets to gem

Lowest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
1974 Topps	45	0.0%	7.03
Jungle	35	0.0%	7.40
2025 Panini Mosaic Football	77	1.3%	8.75
Star Wars 1977 Topps	37	2.7%	5.93
2025 Panini Prizm Football	207	2.9%	9.01
2024 Panini Prizm Football	144	3.5%	8.93
Funko POP Basketball	28	3.6%	7.50
Baseball Cards 1968 Topps

Most-analyzed sets

The 20 sets with the most cards in the dataset.

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Topps Base Set	662	37.0%	8.47
Pokemon Promo	633	31.6%	8.61
Pokemon Ascended Heroes	454	44.5%	9.04
Pokemon Chaos Rising	310	41.0%	8.98
Pokemon Base Set	306	15.4%	6.83
Base Set	220	6.4%	7.93
Pokemon Perfect Order	209	43.1%	8.95
2025 Panini Prizm Football	207	2.9%	9.01

Methodology

The Gem Rate Index reflects 16,653 trading cards analyzed by CardGrade’s CGI Vision AI. “Gem rate” is the share of cards the AI predicts would receive a gem-mint 10 (its predicted overall grade). Sets appear once they reach at least 25 analyzed cards; categories at 50.

Important: these are AI-predicted grades from pre-submission analysis, not confirmed PSA, BGS, or CGC outcomes. They reflect what CardGrade’s model judged across the cards collectors ran through it. The index updates as more cards are analyzed.

By Jamie Budesky, Founder, CardGrade · Updated July 19, 2026

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Easiest sets to gem

Highest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Topps Topps Traded Base Set	28	64.3%	9.14
The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist	39	59.0%	9.12
Topps Topps Chrome Base Set	47	55.3%	8.89
Baseball Cards 1989 Upper Deck	52	51.9%	8.88
One Piece Carrying on His Will	35	48.6%	9.11
Pokemon Mega Evolution	73	47.9%	8.99
Donruss Base Set	26	46.2%	8.87
Basketball Cards 1991 Upper Deck	31	45.2%	8.66