The CardGrade Gem Rate Index

Across 86,207 cards CardGrade’s AI has analyzed, just 18.2% earned a predicted gem-mint 10 (average predicted grade 8.61). Below: how the gem rate splits by category and by set — including which sets are brutal to gem.

18.2%

of 86,207 analyzed cards are predicted to gem (10). Updated October 17, 2026.

Gem rate by category

Pokémon and TCG cards gem at meaningfully higher rates than modern sports cards.

Category	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Yugioh	143	45.5%	8.36
Magic	78	35.9%	8.30
Onepiece	266	33.5%	8.52
Pokemon	6,005	31.6%	8.49
Sports	41,201	19.4%	8.60
Tcg	31,251	14.1%	8.67
Unknown	97	13.4%	8.72

Hardest sets to gem

Lowest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
1974 Topps	104	0.0%	7.38
Baseball Cards 1964 Topps	54	0.0%	7.66
1958 Topps	50	0.0%	6.09
1963 Topps	48	0.0%	7.21
1975 Topps Mini	43	0.0%	7.53
Baseball Cards 1969 Topps	34	0.0%	7.41
1994 Upper Deck	34	0.0%	8.62
Furious Fists	30

Most-analyzed sets

The 20 sets with the most cards in the dataset.

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Pitch Black	1,406	21.3%	9.02
30th Celebration	1,293	9.7%	9.00
Ascended Heroes	1,257	20.0%	8.96
Chaos Rising	1,127	22.1%	9.00
Destined Rivals	785	17.5%	8.96
30th Celebration: Classic Collection	772	8.8%	8.99
Pokemon Promo	724	31.2%	8.65
Topps Base Set	662	37.0%	8.47

Methodology

The Gem Rate Index reflects 86,207 trading cards analyzed by CardGrade’s CGI Vision AI. “Gem rate” is the share of cards the AI predicts would receive a gem-mint 10 (its predicted overall grade). Sets appear once they reach at least 25 analyzed cards; categories at 50.

Important: these are AI-predicted grades from pre-submission analysis, not confirmed PSA, BGS, or CGC outcomes. They reflect what CardGrade’s model judged across the cards collectors ran through it. The index updates as more cards are analyzed.

By Jamie Budesky, Founder, CardGrade · Updated October 17, 2026

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Easiest sets to gem

Highest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
One Piece Japanese Extra Booster Heroines Edition	25	68.0%	9.50
Baseball Cards 2026 Topps Heritage	26	65.4%	9.62
Topps Topps Traded Base Set	28	64.3%	9.14
The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist	39	59.0%	9.12
Topps Topps Chrome Base Set	47	55.3%	8.89
2026 Topps Heritage	69	50.7%	9.39
Baseball Cards 1989 Upper Deck	68	50.0%	8.99
Pokemon Japanese Scarlet & Violet 151	42	50.0%	8.82