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Across 5,531 cards CardGrade’s AI has analyzed, just 32.1% earned a predicted gem-mint 10 (average predicted grade 8.71). Below: how the gem rate splits by category and by set — including which sets are brutal to gem.
Pokémon and TCG cards gem at meaningfully higher rates than modern sports cards.
| Category | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yugioh | 91 | 60.4% | 9.15 |
| Pokemon | 1,122 | 50.7% | 9.00 |
| Sports | 2,646 | 37.0% | 8.61 |
Lowest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).
| Set | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1974 Topps | 45 | 0.0% | 7.03 |
| 2025 Panini Mosaic Football | 77 | 1.3% | 8.75 |
| Base Set | 95 | 2.1% | 8.29 |
| 2025 Panini Prizm Football | 207 | 2.9% | 9.01 |
| Scarlet & Violet—151 | 30 | 3.3% | 9.08 |
| 2024 Panini Prizm Football | 144 | 3.5% | 8.93 |
| Baseball Cards 1968 Topps | 27 | 7.4% | 8.22 |
The 20 sets with the most cards in the dataset.
| Set | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topps Base Set | 655 | 37.4% | 8.51 |
| 2025 Panini Prizm Football | 207 | 2.9% | 9.01 |
| Pokemon Ascended Heroes | 151 | 58.9% | 9.29 |
| Pokemon Promo | 147 | 54.4% | 9.00 |
| 2024 Panini Prizm Football | 144 | 3.5% | 8.93 |
| Base Set | 95 | 2.1% | 8.29 |
| 2025 Panini Mosaic Football | 77 | 1.3% | 8.75 |
| Fleer Base Set | 57 | 31.6% |
The Gem Rate Index reflects 5,531 trading cards analyzed by CardGrade’s CGI Vision AI. “Gem rate” is the share of cards the AI predicts would receive a gem-mint 10 (its predicted overall grade). Sets appear once they reach at least 25 analyzed cards; categories at 50.
Important: these are AI-predicted grades from pre-submission analysis, not confirmed PSA, BGS, or CGC outcomes. They reflect what CardGrade’s model judged across the cards collectors ran through it. The index updates as more cards are analyzed.
By Jamie Budesky, Founder, CardGrade · Updated June 4, 2026
| Baseball Cards 1974 Topps | 40 | 7.5% | 8.08 |
Highest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).
| Set | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokemon Chaos Rising | 39 | 74.4% | 9.49 |
| Topps Topps Traded Base Set | 27 | 66.7% | 9.30 |
| Topps Topps Chrome Base Set | 43 | 60.5% | 9.26 |
| The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist | 39 | 59.0% | 9.12 |
| Pokemon Ascended Heroes | 151 | 58.9% | 9.29 |
| Pokemon Promo | 147 | 54.4% | 9.00 |
| Pokemon Phantasmal Flames | 31 | 51.6% | 9.15 |
| Football Cards 1981 Topps | 26 | 50.0% | 9.10 |
| 8.64 |
| 2025 Panini Prizm | 54 | 18.5% | 8.99 |
| 1974 Topps | 45 | 0.0% | 7.03 |
| Topps Topps Chrome Base Set | 43 | 60.5% | 9.26 |
| Football Cards 1982 Topps | 42 | 33.3% | 8.31 |
| Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 | 40 | 45.0% | 9.11 |
| Baseball Cards 1974 Topps | 40 | 7.5% | 8.08 |
| Baseball Cards 1975 Topps | 40 | 37.5% | 8.51 |
| Pokemon Chaos Rising | 39 | 74.4% | 9.49 |
| The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist | 39 | 59.0% | 9.12 |
| Pokemon Phantasmal Flames | 31 | 51.6% | 9.15 |
| Scarlet & Violet—151 | 30 | 3.3% | 9.08 |
| Basketball Cards 2025 Topps Chrome | 29 | 37.9% | 8.83 |