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Across 6,303 cards CardGrade’s AI has analyzed, just 32.6% earned a predicted gem-mint 10 (average predicted grade 8.59). Below: how the gem rate splits by category and by set — including which sets are brutal to gem.
Pokémon and TCG cards gem at meaningfully higher rates than modern sports cards.
| Category | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yugioh | 106 | 53.8% | 8.73 |
| Pokemon | 1,568 | 48.5% | 8.88 |
| Sports | 3,007 | 35.2% | 8.47 |
Lowest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).
| Set | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1974 Topps | 45 | 0.0% | 7.03 |
| 2025 Panini Mosaic Football | 77 | 1.3% | 8.75 |
| Base Set | 95 | 2.1% | 8.29 |
| 2025 Panini Prizm Football | 207 | 2.9% | 9.01 |
| 2024 Panini Prizm Football | 144 | 3.5% | 8.93 |
| Baseball Cards 1968 Topps | 31 | 6.5% | 7.69 |
| Baseball Cards 1974 Topps | 52 | 13.5% | 8.13 |
The 20 sets with the most cards in the dataset.
| Set | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topps Base Set | 664 | 36.9% | 8.46 |
| 2025 Panini Prizm Football | 207 | 2.9% | 9.01 |
| Pokemon Promo | 182 | 49.5% | 8.82 |
| Pokemon Ascended Heroes | 181 | 55.8% | 9.14 |
| 2024 Panini Prizm Football | 144 | 3.5% | 8.93 |
| Base Set | 95 | 2.1% | 8.29 |
| 2025 Panini Mosaic Football | 77 | 1.3% | 8.75 |
| Pokemon Chaos Rising | 72 | 52.8% |
The Gem Rate Index reflects 6,303 trading cards analyzed by CardGrade’s CGI Vision AI. “Gem rate” is the share of cards the AI predicts would receive a gem-mint 10 (its predicted overall grade). Sets appear once they reach at least 25 analyzed cards; categories at 50.
Important: these are AI-predicted grades from pre-submission analysis, not confirmed PSA, BGS, or CGC outcomes. They reflect what CardGrade’s model judged across the cards collectors ran through it. The index updates as more cards are analyzed.
By Jamie Budesky, Founder, CardGrade · Updated June 12, 2026
| 2024 Panini Donruss Optic | 25 | 16.0% | 9.16 |
Highest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).
| Set | Cards | Gem (10) rate | Avg grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokemon Perfect Order | 54 | 66.7% | 9.22 |
| Topps Topps Traded Base Set | 28 | 64.3% | 9.14 |
| Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 | 35 | 60.0% | 9.29 |
| The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist | 39 | 59.0% | 9.12 |
| MEP Black Star Promos | 29 | 58.6% | 8.95 |
| Pokemon Mega Evolution | 25 | 56.0% | 9.22 |
| Pokemon Ascended Heroes | 181 | 55.8% | 9.14 |
| Topps Topps Chrome Base Set | 47 | 55.3% | 8.89 |
| 9.05 |
| Fleer Base Set | 58 | 31.0% | 8.58 |
| Pokemon Perfect Order | 54 | 66.7% | 9.22 |
| 2025 Panini Prizm | 54 | 18.5% | 8.99 |
| Baseball Cards 1974 Topps | 52 | 13.5% | 8.13 |
| Topps Topps Chrome Base Set | 47 | 55.3% | 8.89 |
| Football Cards 1982 Topps | 46 | 32.6% | 8.32 |
| 1974 Topps | 45 | 0.0% | 7.03 |
| Baseball Cards 1975 Topps | 41 | 36.6% | 8.52 |
| Pokemon Base Set | 39 | 20.5% | 8.33 |
| The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist | 39 | 59.0% | 9.12 |
| Pokemon Phantasmal Flames | 38 | 52.6% | 9.09 |
| Pokemon Crown Zenith | 36 | 50.0% | 9.06 |