The CardGrade Gem Rate Index

Across 50,441 cards CardGrade’s AI has analyzed, just 26.3% earned a predicted gem-mint 10 (average predicted grade 8.53). Below: how the gem rate splits by category and by set — including which sets are brutal to gem.

26.3%

of 50,441 analyzed cards are predicted to gem (10). Updated September 2, 2026.

Gem rate by category

Pokémon and TCG cards gem at meaningfully higher rates than modern sports cards.

Category	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Yugioh	143	45.5%	8.36
Magic	78	35.9%	8.30
Onepiece	266	33.5%	8.52
Pokemon	5,984	31.8%	8.48
Sports	24,278	26.5%	8.49
Tcg	14,613	25.0%	8.60

Hardest sets to gem

Lowest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
1974 Topps	72	0.0%	6.99
1958 Topps	31	0.0%	5.31
Phantom Forces	25	0.0%	6.78
1975 Topps Mini	25	0.0%	6.74
2025 Panini Mosaic Football	77	1.3%	8.75
Star Wars 1977 Topps	39	2.6%	5.97
1974 O Pee Chee	35	2.9%	7.09
Star Wars Unlimited: Legends of the Force

Most-analyzed sets

The 20 sets with the most cards in the dataset.

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Pitch Black	763	35.4%	9.18
Chaos Rising	734	31.6%	9.09
Ascended Heroes	731	29.1%	9.06
Pokemon Promo	681	32.2%	8.63
Topps Base Set	662	37.0%	8.47
Base Set	525	10.9%	7.49
Pokemon Ascended Heroes	455	44.4%	9.04
151	399	24.8%	8.97
MEP Black Star Promos

Methodology

The Gem Rate Index reflects 50,441 trading cards analyzed by CardGrade’s CGI Vision AI. “Gem rate” is the share of cards the AI predicts would receive a gem-mint 10 (its predicted overall grade). Sets appear once they reach at least 25 analyzed cards; categories at 50.

Important: these are AI-predicted grades from pre-submission analysis, not confirmed PSA, BGS, or CGC outcomes. They reflect what CardGrade’s model judged across the cards collectors ran through it. The index updates as more cards are analyzed.

By Jamie Budesky, Founder, CardGrade · Updated September 2, 2026

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Easiest sets to gem

Highest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
One Piece Japanese Extra Booster Heroines Edition	25	68.0%	9.50
Topps Topps Traded Base Set	28	64.3%	9.14
2026 Topps Heritage	51	62.7%	9.49
The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist	39	59.0%	9.12
Upper Deck	26	57.7%	9.46
ポケモンカード151	33	57.6%	9.35
-A FIST OF DIVINE SPEED- [OP-11]	28	57.1%	9.50
Topps Topps Chrome Base Set	47	55.3%	8.89