The CardGrade Gem Rate Index

Across 62,699 cards CardGrade’s AI has analyzed, just 22.1% earned a predicted gem-mint 10 (average predicted grade 8.53). Below: how the gem rate splits by category and by set — including which sets are brutal to gem.

22.1%

of 62,699 analyzed cards are predicted to gem (10). Updated September 16, 2026.

Gem rate by category

Pokémon and TCG cards gem at meaningfully higher rates than modern sports cards.

Category	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Yugioh	143	45.5%	8.36
Magic	78	35.9%	8.30
Onepiece	266	33.5%	8.52
Pokemon	5,997	31.7%	8.48
Sports	30,427	22.7%	8.51
Tcg	19,967	18.7%	8.56

Hardest sets to gem

Lowest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
1974 Topps	82	0.0%	7.21
1958 Topps	37	0.0%	5.50
1975 Topps Mini	31	0.0%	7.06
Phantom Forces	28	0.0%	7.02
Baseball Cards 1964 Topps	28	0.0%	7.21
1963 Topps	27	0.0%	6.70
Baseball Cards 1969 Topps	26	0.0%	7.19
2025 Panini Mosaic Football	77

Most-analyzed sets

The 20 sets with the most cards in the dataset.

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
Pitch Black	1,042	26.7%	9.04
Ascended Heroes	994	22.7%	8.96
Chaos Rising	911	26.3%	9.03
Pokemon Promo	700	31.9%	8.63
Topps Base Set	662	37.0%	8.47
Base Set	561	10.3%	7.53
151	509	19.4%	8.85
Destined Rivals	492	24.4%	9.04
MEP Black Star Promos

Methodology

The Gem Rate Index reflects 62,699 trading cards analyzed by CardGrade’s CGI Vision AI. “Gem rate” is the share of cards the AI predicts would receive a gem-mint 10 (its predicted overall grade). Sets appear once they reach at least 25 analyzed cards; categories at 50.

Important: these are AI-predicted grades from pre-submission analysis, not confirmed PSA, BGS, or CGC outcomes. They reflect what CardGrade’s model judged across the cards collectors ran through it. The index updates as more cards are analyzed.

By Jamie Budesky, Founder, CardGrade · Updated September 16, 2026

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Easiest sets to gem

Highest predicted gem-10 rates (min. 25 cards).

Set	Cards	Gem (10) rate	Avg grade
One Piece Japanese Extra Booster Heroines Edition	25	68.0%	9.50
Topps Topps Traded Base Set	28	64.3%	9.14
2026 Topps Heritage	59	59.3%	9.47
The Pokemon Company Ascended Heroes Checklist	39	59.0%	9.12
Regional 2024 wave1	28	57.1%	9.38
Topps Topps Chrome Base Set	47	55.3%	8.89
Baseball Cards 1989 Upper Deck	63	54.0%	8.98
Pokemon Japanese Scarlet & Violet 151	42	50.0%	8.82