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Real gem rate data from 2,365+ AI-analyzed cards. See how card type, era, and condition affect your odds — and how to improve them before you submit.
Of 2,365 cards analyzed, 879 (37.2%) scored in the gem mint range (9.5-10). But 9.4% scored below PSA 8 — meaning the grading fee would likely cost more than the value added.
Across all 2,365+ cards, corners consistently scores the lowest at 8.90 average. This is the sub-grade most likely to prevent your card from reaching a PSA 10. Check your card's centering with our free centering tool before submitting.
Your PSA 10 chances depend heavily on what type of card you are submitting. Pokemon and TCG cards consistently outperform sports cards in our dataset.
| Card Type | Avg Grade | Cards Analyzed |
|---|---|---|
| Football | 9.00 | 499 |
| Other | 8.69 | 789 |
| Basketball | 8.57 | 75 |
| Sports (Other) | 8.23 | 350 |
| Baseball | 8.03 | 178 |
The era of your card is the single biggest predictor of your PSA 10 chances. This data comes from GemRate and Cardlines analysis of PSA population reports.
| Decade | Sports Gem Rate | TCG Gem Rate | Your Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020s | 41.2% | 60.8% | Good |
| 2010s | 34.8% | 37.2% | Moderate |
| 2000s | 19.8% | 10.5% | Low |
| 1990s | 11.4% | 7.5% | Very Low |
| 1980s | 6.8% | 8.4% | Unlikely |
| 1970s | 0.8% | — | Near Zero |
| 1960s & earlier | ~0% | — | Exceptional Only |
Source: GemRate / Cardlines analysis of PSA population reports, February 2026
PSA requires 55/45 or better on the front and 75/25 on the back. Even 60/40 kills a PSA 10.
Use centering tool →Upload your card and get a predicted grade in 60 seconds. Costs nothing — saves you $20-50 on cards that won't gem.
Try free AI grading →Tilt the card under a bright light at different angles. Edge whitening is the second most common defect after centering.
Read edge guide →Use clean hands or gloves. Store in penny sleeves + top loaders immediately. Surface scratches are invisible until slabbed.
Read prep guide →The overall PSA gem rate is approximately 43% as of 2026, but this varies enormously by card type and era. Modern TCG cards from the 2020s gem around 60%, while modern sports cards gem around 41%. Vintage cards from the 1980s or earlier have gem rates below 7%. Your specific odds depend on the card's centering, corners, edges, and surface condition.
Centering. Based on our analysis of 32,000+ cards, centering consistently scores the lowest among the four sub-grade categories (centering, corners, edges, surface). Cards that are otherwise perfect frequently get capped at PSA 9 due to off-centering, particularly the 55/45 front threshold.
Use CardGrade's free AI grading tool to pre-screen your card. Upload a photo and get predicted grades for PSA, BGS, and CGC within 60 seconds. The AI analyzes centering, corners, edges, and surface — the same four factors graders evaluate. This helps you avoid spending $20-50 on a card that won't gem.
Yes. PSA has an overall gem rate of about 43%. CGC and BGS have higher gem rates (~53%) because collectors strategically send their best cards to earn BGS Black Labels or CGC Pristine 10s. SGC has the lowest gem rate at 21%, primarily because they specialize in vintage cards which rarely gem.
It depends on the card's value. For cards worth $50+ raw, even a PSA 9 can add meaningful value. For cards under $50 raw, the $20-50 grading fee may not be recouped unless the card gems. Use the grade distribution data on this page and a pre-screening tool to make an informed decision.
Pokemon and other TCG cards have a significantly higher gem rate than sports cards — roughly 50% vs 34% as of mid-2025. This is largely because modern TCG cards (which dominate submissions) have better print quality and collectors tend to protect them immediately from the pack.
More tools and guides to help you grade smarter
Check if your card meets PSA's 55/45 threshold
Verify any PSA certification number
PSA, BGS & CGC centering standards explained
Sub-grades, Black Labels & when to choose BGS
Latest gem rates, submissions & trending cards
PSA vs BGS vs CGC vs SGC in 2026